On the afternoon of August 14, at Vietcombank, the USD buying and selling price increased by 60 VND compared to the early morning to 23,620 - 23,990 VND. Compared to the weekend, the USD price at this bank has increased by 80 dong.

BIDV's exchange rate this afternoon also increased by 60 dong to 23,665 - 23,965 dong. At another state-owned bank, VietinBank, the USD price even surpassed the 24,000 dong mark when buying at 23,580 dong, selling at 24,040 dong per dollar.

In the private group, Eximbank also raised the selling price to 60 dong compared to the morning, trading at 23,590 - 23,970 dong. As for Sacombank, the exchange rate increased to 23,615 - 23,968 VND. This is the highest price since March this year.

The price of USD traded at commercial banks increased sharply after the State Bank increased the selling price of USD at the Transaction Office this morning. Specifically, the operator increased the selling price of US dollars by 12 dong to 24,990 dong, keeping the buying price unchanged at 23,400 dong.

The central rate announced by the State Bank on August 14 is 23,848 VND per USD. With a margin of 5%, the USD price allowed to be traded at commercial banks is in the range of VND 22,655 - VND 25,040.

On the free market, the USD price traded at 23,750 – 23,830 dong, slightly decreased in buying direction and increased by 15 dong in selling direction compared to yesterday.

The Vietnam Economic Outlook and Foreign Exchange Market Report in the last 6 months of 2023 of Shinhan Bank (Shinhan Bank) also stated that the dong is at risk of devaluation in the short term due to international pressure.

Vietnam's trade-to-GDP ratio is above 100% and the dong has traditionally tended to move in the same direction as the renminbi when China is the largest trading partner. China's manufacturing sector lost momentum after a brief rally earlier this year caused the yuan to weaken recently. This, according to Shinhan Bank, puts a burden on the dong in the short term.

Despite being sensitive to the outside, Shinhan Bank predicts that the exchange rate will still be well controlled as it is less sensitive to foreign investment and stock market indexes.

Experts at Shinhan Bank predict that the exchange rate will increase in the third quarter and turn down in the fourth quarter with the expectation that China will adjust its economic policy and the global manufacturing sector will get out of the bottom.

The analysis team of KB Securities Vietnam (KBSV) also believes that the exchange rate is still stable thanks to the abundant foreign currency supply and proactive management policy.

KBSV forecasts that the USD/VND exchange rate will increase by about 2% in the whole year of 2023. This slight slippage according to the securities company will not cause the State Bank to raise interest rates or sell off foreign exchange reserves.

Quynh Trang